I love sports. I think part of what I love about them so much is that you never really know what to expect. Even with this as my job of trying to predict what is going to happen, I know I’m going to get things wrong (hopefully no more than about 47% of the time). Being wrong is part of the job; we just try to avoid it as much as possible. A lot of us were wrong about the Twins and White Sox, and both square off tonight.
The are actually pretty good this season. They are under .500, so let’s not start hanging banners and planning parades. The Twins are likely not going to make the postseason, and I’d be surprised if they even bother making a full push for it. Minnesota came into this year with the “rebuilding” label on them after they traded almost every valuable asset away last year. They still have some guys that can bring a return this year, so I expect them to trade them away.
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One of those guys is today’s starter, Joe Ryan. There are many scouts and general managers who have looked into Ryan. There are some good reasons for coveting Ryan. He is 3-3 for the season with a 3.02 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He has been worse on the road than at home, which causes a bit of concern. He has a 3.95 ERA in five road starts. Most of that damage has come in two starts as he allowed nine of his 12 earned runs in two outings. He has also allowed just three earned runs over his last 18 innings.
The are above .500 the day after Memorial Day. The last time they were over .500 on Memorial Day was 2021, and they were exactly at the mark in 2022. This has been a disaster of a team for the past two years. They supposedly had a championship window, but the players never even helped them sniff a championship push. This year has been different. They are fun to watch, seem like they are trying hard and could at least make a run at a Wild Card spot (even if I think it is unlikely).
It will be interesting to see if the team is a buyer or seller in two months when we have the trade deadline. I could see some teams interested in today’s hurler, Sean Burke. For the year, Burke is 2-3 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. The WHIP is encouraging, but the home ERA at 4.73 is a bit concerning. He has allowed 10 earned runs in his past two home starts, both White Sox losses. There isn’t much experience against Burke from Twins hitters, but they are 4-for-9 against him with each hit going for extra bases.
The Twins are going to win this game. They are in a much better position with Ryan on the mound. Both starters are struggling on the road, but I think we can see them navigate the opposing lineup. I do think the first five innings is a bit safer of a bet, so I’ll take that. White Sox hitters are 3-for-7 outside of Andrew Benintendi, who is 8-for-19 with half of those going for extra bases.
Let’s take the Twins through five, but I’ll also do a fun Same Game Parlay of 2+ total bases for Josh Bell, Byron Buxton and Benintendi at +800.
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