With an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot â among their highest of the cycle â Democrats could well be on the cusp of a major wave election.
We say this based on historical trends and the current political mood. At this point in 2018, the last blue wave, Democrats led the generic ballot by roughly 7 points before gaining 41 House seats.
Moreover, the presidents party losing seats in midterms is essentially law in American politics: It has happened in all but three elections since the Roosevelt administration.
FOX NEWS POWER RANKINGS: FOR THE DEMOCRATS, WHERE COULD IT POSSIBLY GO WRONG?
From 1934 through 2018, the presidents party lost an average of 28 House seats and four Senate seats, and over the past five midterms, the average net loss for the presidents party has been 31 House seats.
To be clear, Republicans could make up ground for a number of critical reasons: Democrats remain divided ideologically, lack a message and an identity other than being anti-President Trump, and Republicans have a considerable cash advantage.
That being said, by most measures, Democrats have the upper hand in the House and a genuine opportunity in the Senate.
Recent polling suggests Democratic strength in several key Senate battlegrounds â enough to put the upper chamber in play in what was supposed to be a GOP-friendly map.
DEMOCRATS ARE WITHIN STRIKING DISTANCE IN THE SENATE, BUT SHOULDN’T CELEBRATE YET
In North Carolina, Democrat Roy Cooper leads Republican Michael Whatley by nearly 10 points in the polling average.
In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed holds a narrow 3-point lead over Republican Mike Rogers, who had led during the spring and part of the summer as Republicans emphasized El-Sayeds socialist lean, controversial statements, and his <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/09/19/anti-muslim-rhetoric-against-abdul-el-sayed-shapes-mic
