Financial unease and voter concerns over Republican incumbent Senator Jon Husteds ties to the president are driving the dynamics in the Ohio Senate contest between Husted and former Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.
Brown seeks to regain his Senate seat by challenging Husted, who was appointed in 2025 after JD Vance became vice president. Brown narrowly lost his seat to Bernie Moreno in 2024.
Underpinning the electorates mood is frustration with the cost of living. A new Fox News survey of Ohio registered voters finds inflation dominates their priorities, with 40% saying it is their top issue, far outranking healthcare, immigration, and political divisions.
In 2020, 28% of Ohioans described their familys financial situation as “falling behind.” Now, thats up to 38% â and those voters favor Brown by 40 points.
Donald Trump won Ohio by 11 points in 2024. Still, a vulnerability for Husted is his connection to Trump, as 51% are concerned that hes too close to the president. Thats up 5 points from 46% who felt that way about Husted in June. Plus, fewer voters, 44%, are worried Brown is too closely tied to the Democratic Party establishment.
These headwinds are directly fracturing party lines, with Republican defections to Brown undercutting Husteds built-in advantage in a state where more voters identify as Republican than Democrat.
While 87% of Republicans favor Husted, fully 97% of Democrats back Brown. The Democrat also draws 11% crossover support from Republicans overall and 25% among non-MAGA Republicans. Two-thirds of independents also favor Brown.
All those factors help Brown remain 8 points ahead of Husted in the race for Ohios 53% to 45%, a margin unchanged since June.
Browns lead expands to 10 points (54-44%) among those who rate their certainty to vote as a 10 out of 10, and to 15 points (57-42%) among those saying they are extremely motivated to vote.
In addition, those most motivated to turn out this year â liberals, voters with a college degree, and supporters of the Democratic Socialists of America â prefer their former Senator.
Brown has significant advantages among liberals (+88 points), urban voters (+37), those in union households (+31), voters under age 45 (+17), women (+16), and college graduates (+9).
Husted is favored among conservatives (+65 points), White evangelical Christians (+42), White men without a college degree (+17), rural residents (+12), and married voters (+6).
Meanwhile, Brown has the most positive personal rating of the candidates tested (51% favorable, 47% unfavorable), while ratings for Husted are 10 percentage points underwater (43% favorable, 53% unfavorable).
Part of Brown’s advantage is driven by affinity, as 67% of his supporters say their vote is mainly for him rather than in opposition to Husted. Among those favoring Husted, 58% say they are motivated to vote for him, not against Brown.
Even so, the prospect of a shift is real, as one in five who are backing Brown and one in four supporting Husted say they could change their candidate preference before casting a ballot.
Dissatisfaction with the party organizations and national figures is widespread. Majorities of Ohioans hold unfavorable views of the Democratic Party (57%) and the Republican Party (54%), as well as Trump (56%), the MAGA movement (57%), and the Democratic Socialists of America (54%). Views of Vance are divided, 47% favorable and 50% unfavorable.
In the Ohio governors race, Republican Vivek Ramaswamy receives 50% to Democrat Amy Actons 48%. Thats a small shift since June, when Acton was ahead by 1 point.
Most supporters of both Acton (78%) and
